Modelling the Combined Socio-technical System to Support an Adaptive Approach for Integrated Water Resources Management

Water systems evolve through time, changing constantly due to physical pressures or as a result of how we manage them. Changing socio-economic conditions drastically increase the uncertainty associated with such changes, particularly with regards to the outcome of water resources management decisions. There is an increasing need for such uncertainties to be recognised and addressed by more adaptive approaches to Integrated Water Resources Management. Adaptive approaches mainly include feedback loops within the decision process, which can only be modelled by conducting “modelling experiments” of the interactions between the socio-economic and the hydrological parameters of the water system. In order to enable such modelling experiments, a conceptual model was created, representing the complete socio-technical water system and identifying the decision points that link the socio-economic and hydrological parameters. These parameters were modelled separately by using modelling tools for social simulation and integrated water resources planning. The decision points form the communication ports between the different modelling tools. In this paper, the design process of the underlying conceptual model is presented and explained. The conceptual model is hierarchically divided into three levels: socio-economic processes of water users, their interactions with the water system and finally the imposed pressures on the complete socio-technical water system. The focus of this work is in the interpretation of the socio-economic processes that drive changes in the urban water system. The conceptual model is operationalized through agent based modelling interacting with water management tools and a proof of concept case is presented and discussed in view of its potential usefulness in the context of a more adaptive approach towards integrated water resources management.